今年你打算去博洛尼亚CERSAIE展吗?我认为不会很多人去!
There is no doubt that the market is slow and nobody can deny that everyone is not doing well. Every time the topic comes up in a conversation and the question is asked: How are you doing? How are your sales this year?
毫无疑问,市场正在放缓,每个人都不否认做得不够好。大家每次聊天总离不开这样的话题:你做得怎样?今年的销售如何?
First you just look at their facial expression and they give you the answer before they even open their mouth to say a word. But always the answer is deceiving and people just do not want to give you the real answer and just say things like: So So this year, it is slow, a little behind of last year, we are behind budget, this year has been difficult, and so on why in reality the real answers should be: The market is slow and we are 20% behind last year, our inventories are up the roof and we are facing the tough decisions like should we keep manufacturing at full capacity or should we start thinking in shutting down some kilns. Answers like we are in a real difficult situation and we are lowering our prices so much to try to move material out of our warehouses, we are giving credit to our distributors or customers like we have not done ever before, and so on.
在他们开口前,观察一下他们的神情你其实就有答案。他们的回答总是有所隐瞒,不愿说出实情,往往是这样:一般般啦,今年是有点缓慢,与去年相比差一点点,我们未达到目标,今年比较困难诸如此类。为什么真正的答案不应该是:市场放缓,我们的预算比去年落后了20%,我们的库存快爆仓了,我们面对着一个艰难的决定,是继续保持全线生产还是关闭部分的窑炉……还有这样的答案:我们面临真正的困难,我们正降低价格,从而减少库存的压力,我们正给消费者和经销商前所未有的折扣等等。
The reality is that this price lowering and credit giving is like a snowball that usually can’t be stopped and grows so big that it ends up tearing the companies apart when they can no longer survive with all the credit given and not paid back, when the margins gained are so small and insignificant that they do not help much paying the bills.
事实上,降低价格和折扣,就像一直滚动无法停止的雪球,越滚越大。当不能再依赖折扣生存以及在没有回报的情况下,利润率如此之小,以至于入不敷出,这些公司就会倒闭收场。
Ask the question yourself: How much can the customers or distributors take even if you give them credit and or give them a super low price. They can only take so much, they are facing the same problem, you are just pushing the problem a little to them and it gets to a point where they can’t get any more even if you give them credit or if you give them a super low price.
自问一下:即使你们给经销商和消费者折扣或者超低价格,他们又能消费多少呢。他们所取有限,因为他们也面临相同的困难,你只是把问题推给他们,直至到他们对于低折低价也无法承受的程度为止。
So you may be thinking now: Ok we get it so what would you do then in this situation?
所以是时候思考:在这样的情况我们能做点什么?
While some of the price lowering and credit given may be acceptable to a degree, these measures are the simplest ones and just aspirins or a temporary relief or medicine to the bigger problem.
低价和低折扣总有个承受程度,这是最简单的措施,就像阿司匹林或者其他临时救急药一样,治标不治本,引发更大问题。
Expect the best but prepare for the worst!
做最好的期望,也做最坏的打算!
Many of the companies not only here in China but also in other parts of the world are so big that the bigger they are the bigger the challenges or problems they face. And now we have among us a BIG CHALLENGE.
不止是中国,全球很多公司都面临着这些问题,而且越大的公司面临的压力越大。现在,我们就面对着一个很大的挑战。
Some smart companies balance their sizes so well (I mean by size their manufacturing capacity their OEM sourcing and their stores of distributors and export customers with their sales) that when the problems come they close certain valves here or there to lower their exposure to problems. Usually where they close the valves is with the OEM to keep their own plants running at full capacity if possible.
一些聪明的公司能够很好地平衡规模,(我指的规模是生产能力、代工采购、经销商渠道以及出口销售),因此当问题出现时,他们可以关闭某些渠道减少问题发生。往往他们会取消代工,让自己的工厂保持全线运转。
Anyway, I do not pretend to give anyone a lesson or explain my experiences in detail just share a few thoughts. I have been there and have done that. We have experience this In USA recently with the recession and in Mexico multiple times with economic crisis, devaluations and so on. We are still here and stronger than ever.
无论如何,我不想假装要给任何人上课或诉说经验,我只是分享一些想法。我经历过也渡过了,美国近年的经济衰退和墨西哥多次经济危机、货币贬值。我们依然屹立不倒,而且比此前任何时候强大。
One of the things I learned during the difficult times is how to make things happen, how to take advantage of the negative situation and make positive improvements, gain market share and so on.
在困难时期我学到的一件事就是如何行动起来让事情推进,利用消极的环境,做出积极的改进,并获取市场份额等等。
Usually during this times when people lower their arms and stop fighting is when we make take advantage of that and NEVER EVER lower your head your defenses.
通常在这个时候,人们放下武器,停止战斗,我们利用这一时机,永远不要低头和示弱。
So my final question is how I started the article: Why in the world are you not going to BOLOGNA? Because the domestic and or export market is bad? Because you don’t need to go if sales are slow?
回到我文章开头提出的问题:为什么你不打算去博洛尼亚?因为国内和出口销售市道差?因为销售不好所以你就不去了?
You better think twice, because I honestly believe that you are only making it worse if you do not keep up with the trends in product, technology, design and decoration. And if you still strong about not going then the only good thing you can do is go to the Trends presentation that we will have again along with CCIH sometime in October.
你最好三思,因为我真心认为如果你不跟上产品,技术,设计和装饰趋势的话,只会让事情变得更糟。如果你仍然不想去,那么你唯一能做的就是参与我们10月份在中国陶瓷总部举行的瓷砖趋势发布会。
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