人民币贬值意味着什么? WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO HAVE A WEAKER RMB?
这是10年来或者更准确地说从2008年,人民币兑换美元的参考汇率略高于7比1,截止到今天8月8日星期四上午11:44分,1美元的汇率是7.04元人民币。
这是什么意思?这对我个人来说重要吗?这对一家公司来说重要吗?人民币贬值意味着什么?
在没有试图给出复杂的经济解释的情况下,人民币贬值意味着以下的事情:与美国的贸易战仍在继续,并且已经升级到另一个层次。对这场贸易战对全球经济影响正在显著增加。这些是政府为了预防出现更大的问题而采取的权衡措施。
人民币贬值肯定有助于出口,减轻了美国最近对大多数产品征收25%的税收以及增值税退税的影响,但与此同时,中国产品的定价对其他世界市场更具吸引力。
人民币贬值使中国消费者在海外消费时三思而后行,转而更多地关注国内消费,间接增加政府希望作为稳定经济的措施的内部消费。
对大多数人来说这可能不是一件重要的事情,许多人绝对不会注意这一点,但它比你想象的更重要。
当你到海外旅行时,就像我上周在意大利出差一样,在高端商店、市场或购物中心会见到一个壮观的场面,大多数见到中国人在购物。大多数在像Prada,Gucci,Hermes,Chanel这样的高端商店的顾客都是中国人,他们不是去看一下,而是去购物,买的不是一两件,他们会买很多的东西。
每次去意大利、西班牙、美国,我都会问高端商店的店员,他们都会说同样的话。在出了中国的任何地方,中国消费者的销售额占总销售额的70%。随着人民币贬值,这现象会受影响吗?我知道它会有一些影响,或许不会影响很多,但肯定有助于增加国内消费,减少中国游客在海外的购买习惯。
另一方面,到其他国家的出口增加了4%-5%的价格吸引力,这有助于提高公司们在其他国际市场而不是美国市场的销售。
毫无疑问,中国需要在一定程度上从一个以制造业为导向的国家转变为一个消费导向型国家。
据我理解,中国要采取自己的措施来对抗与美国的贸易战,因为美国贸易的巨大逆差国家可能会失去更多而处于劣势,但中国也有许多其他武器来对抗这场战争。
最终我们都希望尽快结束这种紧张局势,因为我们都知道它已经以某种方式影响了我们所有人。
For the first time in more than 10 years or since 2008 to be more exact the exchange rate of the RMB vs the Dollar set its reference to slightly over 7 to 1. As of today Thursday August 8 at 11:44 am the rate is 7.04 RMB per US Dollar.
What does this mean? Is this important for me as an individual? Is it important as a company? What does this weaker RMB mean?
Without trying to give a complex economic explanation the weaker RMB means the following things: The trade war with the USA continues and has escalated to another level. The concerns about the impact of this trade war on the global economy is significantly growing. These are calculated measures that the governments take to prevent bigger problems.
The weaker RMB certainly helps exports by easing the 25% taxes along with the VAT rebates recently imposed by the USA on most products now, but at the same time the Chinese products become more attractively priced for other world markets.
The weaker RMB makes the Chinese consumer think twice about spending more overseas and focus more on domestic spending, so indirectly increases the internal consumption that the government wants as a measure to stabilize the economy.
It may not be an important thing to most of the people and many of them will absolutely pay no attention to this but its significance is more important than you think.
When you travel overseas as I just recently did as I was in Italy last week, it is a spectacle to go to the high end stores, markets or malls and mostly see Chinese buying. Most of the customers in the high end stores like Prada, Gucci, Hermes, Chanel are Chinese and they do not go to see, they go to buy and not a thing or two, they go buy many things.
Every single time that I go to Italy, Spain, USA I ask at the high end stores and they all keep saying the same; The Chinese consumer makes 70% of the total sales anywhere you go out of China. Would this then slow down with the weaker RMB? I know it will, maybe not a lot but it will help certainly boosting domestic consumption and reduce Chinese travelers buying habits overseas.
On the other hand, exports to other countries have become 4% - 5% more attractively priced helping increase sales for the companies in other international markets rather than the USA.
There is no doubt that China needs to change from a manufacturer oriented country more towards a consuming oriented country to a degree.
As I understand China needs to take its own measures to fight the trade war with the USA, the country may be at a disadvantage as it has more to lose because of the huge trade deficit with the USA, but China also have many other weapons to fight the war with.
At the end of the day we all want to end this tense situation as good and as soon as possible because we all know it is already affecting us all in some way or the other.
Humberto Valles
ICC General Manager
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