世界经济
World Economy
先生、女士们,这次我们谈谈世界经济。
比中国成本低、获国内石油产业和金融领域等利好因素的引导,墨西哥将成为继中国和巴西后新一个金砖国。
右面的图表一显示了过去12年来,中国和墨西哥在大型制造业工资的变化。或许在不久的将来,世界经济格局将会改变。
一旦关闭了国内关税和贸易管制,墨西哥便将成为一个全球商务区。北美自由贸易协议(NAFTA)在1994年建立,旨在消除墨西哥、美国和加拿大之间贸易的大部分关税,这仅仅是开始:墨西哥现在与44个国家拥有自由往来贸易协议,数量超过任何一个国家。在墨西哥的中北部地区,一些德国企业生产的电器元件产品,为欧洲、加拿大公司组装飞机零部件、电视、小型电冰箱以及其他更多电器。每年墨西哥出口的制造业货物与其他拉丁国家出口量的总和相同。
通常这是一件好事,但在经历了2007、2008年全球金融危机后,墨西哥遭受了严重的打击。由于其全面开放的经济体系以及高度曝光在美国面前,美洲大陆遭受了严重的经济衰退:2009经济总量萎缩6%。这个国家已经度过了困难重重的十年。当中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织的时候,它开始削弱墨西哥出口产业。在2010之前的过去10年期间,墨西哥经济年平均增长率1.6%,还不到出口商品到中国而蓬勃发展的巴西增长率的一半。
但对于墨西哥的工厂而言情况在不断地改变,其金融财务领域甚至是石油和天然气领域的发展,这都预示着墨西哥享有一个非常不同的十年。墨西哥这个拉丁美洲多年的经济后进生,去年的经济增长速度大于巴西,而今年将会继续这个增长的势头:墨西哥4%左右的增长速度大于不到2%的巴西。新一届墨西哥总统对经济总量增长的目标是,在他6年任期内,将经济年度增长率提升到6%。在接下来的这10年末,墨西哥将可能晋升世界十大经济体之一。一些乐观人士预测,墨西哥甚至可能成为拉丁美洲最大的经济体。
根据汇丰银行预测,在未来六年时间内,对比其他任何一个出口到美国的国家,美国更加依赖来自墨西哥的出口(数据见图表二)。对于美国来说,“墨西哥制造” 很快就会比“中国制造”更加为人知晓。
图表一:过去12年来,中国和墨西哥大型制造业工资的变化。
图表二:所有进口国中所占的百分比(墨西哥、中国、加拿大、日本 年份:1990 2000 2012 2018预测)
Ladies & Gentelman, start your engines
Cheaper than China and with credit and oil about to start flowing, Mexico is becoming a Brazil & China beater
The following chart shows the big manufacturing wage changes in the last 12 years between Mexico and China that may change the game in the near future
Once shuttered off by tariffs and trade controls, Mexico has opened up to become a place where the world does business. The North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which in 1994 eliminated most tariffs between Mexico, the United States and Canada, was only the beginning: Mexico now boasts free-trade deals with 44 countries, more than any other nation. In northern and central Mexico German companies turn out electrical components for Europe, Canadian firms assemble aircraft parts and factory after factory makes televisions, fridge-freezers and much else. Each year Mexico exports manufactured goods to about the same value as the rest of Latin America put together.
Normally that would be a good thing, but after the 2007-08 financial crisis Mexico got a terrible walloping. Thanks to its wide-open economy and high exposure to the United States it suffered the steepest recession on the American mainland: in 2009 its economy shrank by 6%. The country had already had a rocky decade. When China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, it started undercutting Mexico’s export industry. In the ten years to 2010 Mexico’s economy grew by an average of just 1.6% a year, less than half the rate of Brazil, which flourished in part by exporting commodities to China.
But now changes are under way, in Mexico’s factories, its financial sector and even its oil and gas fields, that augur well for a very different decade. Latin America’s perennial underachiever grew faster than Brazil last year and will repeat the trick this year, with a rate of about 4% against less than 2% in Brazil. With a New President Mexico is aiming to get annual growth up to 6% before his six-year presidency is over. By the end of this decade Mexico will probably be among the world’s ten biggest economies; a few bullish forecasters think it might even become the largest in Latin America.
According to projections by HSBC, in six years’ time the United States will be more dependent on imports from Mexico than from any other country (see chart above). Soon “Hecho en México” will become more familiar to Americans than “Made in China”
本文链接: http://http://www.icctc.cn/content/?736.html